The imbalance in President Trump’s treatment of America’s closest trading partners may come from his desire to make Canada the 51st state, some Canadians believe.

Because of the USMCA exemption, the effective tariff rate on US imports of Canadian goods was around 5%, according to estimates published July 30 by the Bank of Canada. That will now rise slightly. Economists at Bank of Nova Scotia estimated recently that the effective tariff rate would be between 6% and 7%.