In Davis and Gertler (2015), we used household-level microdata from Mexico to predict future air conditioning adoption as a function of income and temperature. Revisiting these predictions with 12 ...

As geopolitical tensions intensify, great powers often turn to trade policy to influence international alignment. We examine the optimal design of tariffs in a world where large countries care not ...

We examine the effects of Ukraine’s economic blockade of the anthracite-rich Donbas region, to demonstrate how trade sanctions’ efficacy can be undermined by trade through non-participatory nations.

In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Health, and the Bulletin on ...

Novel co-inventors introduce new products or services with the potential for large returns, but do so at high costs and with uncertain outcomes. Similar firms investing in incremental co-invention ...

This paper tests the long-standing hypothesis that China's 1958 Four Pests Campaign, which exterminated sparrows despite scientists’ warnings about their pest-control role, exacerbated the Great ...

This paper tests how people’s moral values influence their views of debt contracts. We ask participants to make decisions about debt contracts in different hypothetical situations (vignettes). We ...

We develop novel high-frequency indices that measure climate attention across a wide range of developed and emerging economies. By analyzing the text of over 23 million Tweets published by leading ...

Our findings indicate that self-image is at most 19.3% as important as social-image. Additionally, we document substantial heterogeneity in the strength of these preferences across individuals and ...

Informational nudges to encourage energy conservation or load shifting have been tried in various contexts. This paper studies a program run by a small municipally owned electric utility to reduce ...

This paper examines how entrepreneurs strategically design experiments to convince venture capitalists (VCs) to fund their projects when investors interpret data through heterogeneous statistical ...

We combine nine previously proposed measures to construct an index of political polarization among US adults. We find that the growth in polarization in recent years is largest for the demographic ...