The conjunction and disjunction fallacies are famous for revealing the limits of human reasoning about probability. This can be measured by telling people a short story about a character and then ...

“One of the basic axioms of the rational theory of decision under uncertainty is Savage’s (1954) sure-thing principle (STP).

What happened when a gambler asked for help from a mathematician? The formal study of Probability. Infinite Series is available to stream on pbs.org and the free PBS App, available on iPhone, Apple TV ...

Probability theory has long provided a rigorous framework for quantifying uncertainty, yet its extension to infinite sets introduces profound conceptual challenges and opportunities. Contemporary ...

In A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, published in 1814, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced a notorious hypothetical creature: a “vast intelligence” that knew the complete physical state of the ...

Introduction to probability theory and its applications. Axioms of probability, distributions, discrete and continuous random variables, conditional and joint distributions, correlation, limit laws, ...