The biggest increase in wholesale prices in three and a half years stunned Wall Street, but is tariff-related inflation really set to soar? The proof is far from ironclad.

Here's what new data from the producer price index says about where inflation is headed, according to economists.

Producer prices in July rose faster than forecast across the board, giving investors and the Federal Reserve an inflation surprise just over a week out from Fed Chair Jay Powell's crucial Jackson Hole speech.

The brunt of tariffs is yet to be felt. Importers padded inventories before Liberation Day or absorbing the costs, delaying the full impact of the import taxes.

The White House says that tariffs haven’t caused inflation in the world’s biggest economy, but a series of recent data releases this week could soon challenge that view.

Inflation held steady in July and ran slightly cooler than expected, increasing the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

Residents of New York, Georgia and Alaska may experience welcomed déjà vu in coming months as inflation relief checks arrive, reminiscent of pandemic stimulus checks. While talk of federally funded tariff rebate checks is being floated around in Congress,

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the producer price index jumped more than expected in July, spurring renewed concerns about inflation's economic impact.

U.S. inflation was unchanged in July as rising prices for some imported goods were balanced by falling gas and grocery prices, leaving overall prices modestly higher than a year ago.

Inflation brought on by Trump's tariffs will be seen in "rolling pockets," Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders said.